Though some climate change skeptics may still remain on the fringes, the verdict is in: scientific evidence has shown repeatedly that mankind’s contribution to global warming is a threat to the sustainability of life on Earth.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Arecent report by esteemed British economist Sir Nicholas Stern said the world is not only in a position to do something about global warming – the costs of tackling climate change are affordable, especially when compared to the
price of doing nothing.
While federally Canada’s response remains cautious, a growing contingent of Canadians appears more than ready for earnest action.
In a commentary following the release earlier this fall of the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, Dr. Stern, a former World Bank chief economist, warned, “Human activities are pouring 45 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere a year, and rising.
“Attempts to continue along the current unsustainable pathway will increasingly be thwarted as melting ice caps, higher temperatures, heavier storms, longer droughts, more frequent floods and rising sea levels exert an ever heavier toll on wellbeing and lives. Ignoring the problem will undermine our standard of living, and eventually harm economic growth.”
Among its findings, the Stern report said climate change will reduce the world’s GDP by at least five per cent and up to 20 per cent when a dollar value of damage to human life and the environment is factored in.
Dr. Stern said his findings also show that the worst of these impacts could be averted and a net toll on the world’s GDP could be reduced to about one per cent if annual emissions worldwide are reduced by at least 25 per cent from today’s levels by 2050, and eventually emissions are cut o a level at least 80 per cent lower than present. “This is achievable, economically feasible, and will significantly reduce the risk of extreme temperature changes,” he said.
Matthew Bramley, of the Alberta-based environmental group the Pembina Institute, said, “Stern shows it is economically irrational to be opposed to an immediate move towards deep cuts in GHG emissions.”
Alcan vice president of sustainability Dan Gagnier said, “If you take a narrow view and see climate change as a threat, you will be inclined to go around it. In 1997, we recognized the risk and that the risk was growing. We said, ‘The sooner we learn to deal with climate change, the better competitive position we’ll be in.’”
He notes the company is in its third protocol with the province of Quebec, setting targets for the aluminum sector. “We have delivered over 25 per cent reduction overall and 40 per cent on intensity. “We’ve proven we can do it. Our focus is on getting to the next level.”
While companies including Alcan, Dow, Husky Injection Molding, InterflorCommercial, Shell, Suncor, TransAlta and others have voluntarily made impressive cuts to their GHG output, David Suzuki Foundation climate policy expert Dale Marshall notes that, in 2004, an OECD assessment said Canada was relying too heavily on voluntary targets and incentives to tackle climate change.
“In a transition period, it’s fine to use incentives and voluntary measures,” said Mr. Marshall. “But if you’re serious about an issue, ultimately you need regulation.”
Dr. Stern said three elements of policy are required for an effective global response: carbon pricing, through tax, trading or regulation, “so that people pay the full social cost of their actions”; support for innovation and deployment of lowcarbon technologies; and the removal of barriers to energy efficiency and measures to inform, educate and persuade.
Simon Fraser University professor Mark Jaccard said people are more willing to support GHG reduction policies that start modest and tighten gradually, such as an incrementally rising GHG tax or a falling carbon cap.
“Without regulation, achieving national climate change targets will be impossible,” said Mr. Gagnier, noting, “You need smart regulation. Regulation can be good in that it provides a common ground and certainty. Or, it can be bad if the costs are excessively high and it destroys value.”
Mr. Marshall notes the enshrinement of GHGs in the Canadian Environmental Protection Act means the federal government is already in a position to regulate up to 75 per cent of Canada’s emissions, including those related to energy production, automotive, manufacturing, mining and transport.
“Right now. If the government got serious,” he said. While naysayers often argue that regulations could cause consumer costs to skyrocket, Dr. Jaccard, author of the Donner Prize-winning book Sustainable Fossil Fuels, The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy, said, “My research showed that humanity could reduce its GHG emissions over the course of the next 50 to 100 years while our energy costs increased by about one per cent per year over the next 50 years.
“This allows people to make a trade-off. Are we willing to see our total energy bills (vehicle mobility, home heating, gadgets, etc.) increase in cost by about $10 per year for the next 20 years or so in order to avoid the risks of climate change? I believe that enough people would say ‘yes’ to that question that we would be able to muster the emissions caps or carbon taxes necessary for the reductions to happen.”
Mr. Gagnier notes, “People often look at this as an industry issue. But everybody has to play a role. I will as a consumer. Alcan will. The government will.
But Mr. Bramley warns, “the Harper government’s current plans seem unlikely to be tough enough to put a price on emissions high enough to drive major change.”
Dr. Stern said, “With strong and urgent action, governments, businesses and individuals, working together, can safeguard our future growth and prosperity. But if we delay just 10 or 20 years, the costs will be much higher, and the risks much greater.”
---
Associations and Partners also appearing in this report:
International Energy Agency, warns that the world’s current energy mix is environmentally unsustainable
AVRIM LAZAR
President and CEO
Forest Products Association of Canada
MATTHEW BRAMLEY
Director, Climate Change,
the Pembina Institute
PATRICK MOORE, PhD
Chair and Chief Scientist,Greenspirit Strategies Ltd. and a co-founder and former leader of Greenpeace
DON MACKINNON
President, Power Workers Union
---
TO READ THE FULL REPORT AS IT APPEARED IN THE GLOBE AND MAIL, PLEASE CLICK ON THE ATTACHED PDF >